// ~->[DNET-1]->~ // File created by MarcotB at ICBEMP using Netica 1.37 // on Mar 23, 2000 at 12:01:53. bnet across_LAL30B { autoupdate = TRUE; comment = "Basin-scale BBN for TOWNSEND'S BIG-EARED BAT, TBBA\n\ Alpha version 3.0, 23 March 2000\n\ for: Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project\n\n\ Figure 2c from:\n\ Marcot, B. G., R. S. Holthausen, M. G. Raphael, M. Rowland, \ and M. Wisdom. \n\ Submitted. Using Bayesian belief networks to assess \ vertebrate population \n\ viability in the interior Columbia Basin, USA. Forest \ Ecology and \n\ Management xxx(xxx):xxx-xxx. \n\ "; whenchanged = 953840069; visual V2 { defdispform = BELIEFBARS; nodelabeling = NAMETITLE; NodeMaxNumEntries = 50; nodefont = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 8;}; linkfont = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; windowposn = (36, 20, 678, 566); CommentWindowPosn = (176, 176, 1144, 809); resolution = 72; drawingbounds = (1263, 3483); showpagebreaks = FALSE; usegrid = TRUE; gridspace = (6, 6); PrinterSetting A { margins = (1270, 1270, 1270, 1270); landscape = FALSE; magnify = 1; }; }; node B { kind = NATURE; discrete = FALSE; levels = (0, 20, 40, 60, 80, INFINITY); parents = (); probs = // 0 to 20 20 to 40 40 to 60 60 to 80 More than 80 (0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2); numcases = 126; title = "Environmental Index \nRelative to Historical"; comment = "Adjusted population density for a species at time X, \ alterna-\n\ tive X, relative to adjusted population density \ historically.\n\n\ To compute the entry for this node:\n\n\ Adjusted population density within each LAL (expected\n\ value of \"EE\" from within-LAL output) at time X,\n\ alternative X is multiplied by the area of the LAL. These\n\ products are summed across LALS. This procedure is \n\ repeated for historical population density. Calculation \ for \n\ both current and historic includes all LALs that are \ non-zero\n\ either currently or historically. The current sum is then\n\ divided by the historical sum, and the result is multiplied\n\ by 100 to give percent.\n\n\ LAL = \"lowest analysis level\" and refers to the smallest \ land\n\ area that is ecologically meaningful for evaluating each\n\ species. LALs vary in size by species."; whenchanged = 953840069; evidence = #3; belief = (0, 0, 0, 1, 0); visual V2 { center = (114, 78); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 1; }; }; node D { kind = NATURE; discrete = FALSE; levels = (0, 20, 40, 60, 80, INFINITY); parents = (); probs = // 0 to 20 20 to 40 40 to 60 60 to 80 More than 80 (0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2); numcases = 130; title = "Range Expansion/Contraction"; comment = "Total area of the 6th HUCs with a non-zero adjusted popu-\n\ lation density score (node EE, within-LAL) for alternative X\ \n\ at time X, divided by the total area of 6th HUCs with\n\ non-zero adjusted population density historically. The \n\ result is multiplied by 100 to give percent.\n\n\ LAL = \"lowest analysis level\" and refers to the smallest \ land\n\ area that is ecologically meaningful for evaluating each\n\ species. LALs vary in size by species."; whenchanged = 953840010; evidence = #2; belief = (0, 0, 1, 0, 0); visual V2 { center = (318, 72); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 2; }; }; node E { kind = NATURE; discrete = FALSE; levels = (0, 20, 40, 60, 80, INFINITY); parents = (); probs = // 0 to 20 20 to 40 40 to 60 60 to 80 More than 80 (0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2, 0.2); numcases = 130; title = "Connectivity"; comment = "Connectivity metric that indexes the relative connect-\n\ ivity of LALs with non-zero scores for adjusted population\n\ density at the specific time X, alternative X combination\n\ under consideration. Values range from 0-100%, with \n\ 100% realized when all LALs being considered are \n\ joined in 1 cluster. A score of 75%, for example, would\n\ mean that \"the average acre of habitat falls within a\n\ cluster that contains 75% of the habitat in all clusters\"\n\ (per D. Hatfield).\n\n\ High = most habitat joined in few, large clusters; con-\n\ nectivity index score >66%.\n\ Moderate = few habitats joined (33-66% score).\n\ Low = habitat not well-connected, many clusters (score <\n\ 33%).\n\n\ To calculate the metric, a buffer is extended from the\n\ edge of each group of contiguous LALs that have non-\n\ zero adj. population density (a \"patch\") to a distance\n\ equal to 1/2 the natal dispersal distance of the species.\n\ Any patches that connect are then joined as a \"cluster.\"\n\ A weighted mean of the clusters is obtained using the\n\ cluster areas as follows:\n\n\ [(Asq + Bsq + Csq) / (A + B + C)sq] x 100, where A, B, and\n\ C are the areas of 3 hypothetical clusters.\n\n\ Dispersal distance is calculated based on home\n\ range size, using methods derived by T. Rich\n\ (\"Dispersal and Connectivity for BBN Models,\" April 9,\n\ 1999).\n\n\ Connectivity index created by David Hatfield as \n\ \"Home Range 2\" for CRB effects analysis.\n\ Detailed description of method to be provided by Hatfield.\n\ \n\ LAL = \"lowest analysis level\" and refers to the smallest \ land\n\ area that is ecologically meaningful for evaluating each\n\ species. LALs vary in size by species."; whenchanged = 953840004; evidence = #2; belief = (0, 0, 1, 0, 0); visual V2 { center = (504, 72); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 3; }; }; node F { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (A, B, C, D, E); levels = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5); parents = (D, E, B); probs = // A B C D E // D E B ((((0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 0 to 20 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 0 to 20 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 0 to 20 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 0 to 20 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0, 0.55, 0.45)), // 0 to 20 0 to 20 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 20 to 40 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.1, 0.9), // 0 to 20 20 to 40 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.175, 0.825), // 0 to 20 20 to 40 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.7, 0.3), // 0 to 20 20 to 40 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0, 0.75, 0.25)), // 0 to 20 20 to 40 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 40 to 60 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.15, 0.85), // 0 to 20 40 to 60 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.8, 0.2), // 0 to 20 40 to 60 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.825, 0.175), // 0 to 20 40 to 60 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0, 0.85, 0.15)), // 0 to 20 40 to 60 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 60 to 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.25, 0.75), // 0 to 20 60 to 80 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.85, 0.15), // 0 to 20 60 to 80 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.9, 0.1), // 0 to 20 60 to 80 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0, 0.95, 0.05)), // 0 to 20 60 to 80 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 0 to 20 More than 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.85, 0.15), // 0 to 20 More than 80 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.9, 0.1), // 0 to 20 More than 80 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.95, 0.05), // 0 to 20 More than 80 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.55, 0.4, 0.05))), // 0 to 20 More than 80 More than 80 (((0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 20 to 40 0 to 20 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.1, 0.9), // 20 to 40 0 to 20 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.125, 0.875), // 20 to 40 0 to 20 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.65, 0.35), // 20 to 40 0 to 20 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0, 0.75, 0.25)), // 20 to 40 0 to 20 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.1, 0.9), // 20 to 40 20 to 40 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.75, 0.25), // 20 to 40 20 to 40 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.8, 0.2), // 20 to 40 20 to 40 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.825, 0.175), // 20 to 40 20 to 40 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.5, 0.35, 0.15)), // 20 to 40 20 to 40 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.3, 0.7), // 20 to 40 40 to 60 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.825, 0.175), // 20 to 40 40 to 60 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.85, 0.15), // 20 to 40 40 to 60 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.65, 0.3, 0.05), // 20 to 40 40 to 60 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.7, 0.25, 0.05)), // 20 to 40 40 to 60 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.325, 0.675), // 20 to 40 60 to 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.9, 0.1), // 20 to 40 60 to 80 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.2, 0.75, 0.05), // 20 to 40 60 to 80 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.75, 0.25, 0), // 20 to 40 60 to 80 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.8, 0.2, 0)), // 20 to 40 60 to 80 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.35, 0.65), // 20 to 40 More than 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.05, 0.95, 0), // 20 to 40 More than 80 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.85, 0.15, 0), // 20 to 40 More than 80 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.9, 0.1, 0), // 20 to 40 More than 80 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.95, 0.05, 0))), // 20 to 40 More than 80 More than 80 (((0, 0, 0, 0.05, 0.95), // 40 to 60 0 to 20 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.15, 0.85), // 40 to 60 0 to 20 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.75, 0.25), // 40 to 60 0 to 20 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.8, 0.2), // 40 to 60 0 to 20 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0, 0.9, 0.1)), // 40 to 60 0 to 20 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.15, 0.85), // 40 to 60 20 to 40 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.775, 0.225), // 40 to 60 20 to 40 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.1, 0.8, 0.1), // 40 to 60 20 to 40 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.6, 0.35, 0.05), // 40 to 60 20 to 40 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.7, 0.3, 0)), // 40 to 60 20 to 40 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.325, 0.675), // 40 to 60 40 to 60 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.05, 0.9, 0.05), // 40 to 60 40 to 60 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.3, 0.7, 0), // 40 to 60 40 to 60 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.75, 0.25, 0), // 40 to 60 40 to 60 60 to 80 (0, 0.15, 0.75, 0.1, 0)), // 40 to 60 40 to 60 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.35, 0.65), // 40 to 60 60 to 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.15, 0.85, 0), // 40 to 60 60 to 80 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.9, 0.1, 0), // 40 to 60 60 to 80 40 to 60 (0, 0.05, 0.9, 0.05, 0), // 40 to 60 60 to 80 60 to 80 (0, 0.75, 0.25, 0, 0)), // 40 to 60 60 to 80 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.4, 0.6), // 40 to 60 More than 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.2, 0.8, 0), // 40 to 60 More than 80 20 to 40 (0, 0.1, 0.85, 0.05, 0), // 40 to 60 More than 80 40 to 60 (0, 0.2, 0.75, 0.05, 0), // 40 to 60 More than 80 60 to 80 (0, 0.9, 0.1, 0, 0))), // 40 to 60 More than 80 More than 80 (((0, 0, 0, 0.1, 0.9), // 60 to 80 0 to 20 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.2, 0.8), // 60 to 80 0 to 20 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.875, 0.125), // 60 to 80 0 to 20 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0, 0.9, 0.1), // 60 to 80 0 to 20 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.05, 0.9, 0.05)), // 60 to 80 0 to 20 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.2, 0.8), // 60 to 80 20 to 40 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.8, 0.2), // 60 to 80 20 to 40 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.1, 0.85, 0.05), // 60 to 80 20 to 40 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.7, 0.3, 0), // 60 to 80 20 to 40 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.85, 0.15, 0)), // 60 to 80 20 to 40 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.35, 0.65), // 60 to 80 40 to 60 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.1, 0.85, 0.05), // 60 to 80 40 to 60 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.85, 0.15, 0), // 60 to 80 40 to 60 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.9, 0.1, 0), // 60 to 80 40 to 60 60 to 80 (0, 0.75, 0.2, 0.05, 0)), // 60 to 80 40 to 60 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.4, 0.6), // 60 to 80 60 to 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.225, 0.775, 0), // 60 to 80 60 to 80 20 to 40 (0, 0.05, 0.85, 0.1, 0), // 60 to 80 60 to 80 40 to 60 (0, 0.75, 0.25, 0, 0), // 60 to 80 60 to 80 60 to 80 (0.15, 0.8, 0.05, 0, 0)), // 60 to 80 60 to 80 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.45, 0.55), // 60 to 80 More than 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.25, 0.75, 0), // 60 to 80 More than 80 20 to 40 (0, 0.2, 0.8, 0, 0), // 60 to 80 More than 80 40 to 60 (0.1, 0.8, 0.1, 0, 0), // 60 to 80 More than 80 60 to 80 (0.4, 0.6, 0, 0, 0))), // 60 to 80 More than 80 More than 80 (((0, 0, 0, 0.15, 0.85), // More than 80 0 to 20 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0, 0.75, 0.25), // More than 80 0 to 20 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0, 0.9, 0.1), // More than 80 0 to 20 40 to 60 (0, 0, 0.05, 0.9, 0.05), // More than 80 0 to 20 60 to 80 (0, 0, 0.6, 0.35, 0.05)), // More than 80 0 to 20 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0, 0.3, 0.7), // More than 80 20 to 40 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.1, 0.85, 0.05), // More than 80 20 to 40 20 to 40 (0, 0, 0.8, 0.2, 0), // More than 80 20 to 40 40 to 60 (0, 0.05, 0.9, 0.05, 0), // More than 80 20 to 40 60 to 80 (0, 0.05, 0.95, 0, 0)), // More than 80 20 to 40 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0.025, 0.325, 0.65), // More than 80 40 to 60 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.2, 0.8, 0), // More than 80 40 to 60 20 to 40 (0, 0.1, 0.9, 0, 0), // More than 80 40 to 60 40 to 60 (0, 0.35, 0.65, 0, 0), // More than 80 40 to 60 60 to 80 (0.225, 0.775, 0, 0, 0)), // More than 80 40 to 60 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0.05, 0.35, 0.6), // More than 80 60 to 80 0 to 20 (0, 0, 0.35, 0.65, 0), // More than 80 60 to 80 20 to 40 (0, 0.15, 0.85, 0, 0), // More than 80 60 to 80 40 to 60 (0.15, 0.75, 0.1, 0, 0), // More than 80 60 to 80 60 to 80 (0.4, 0.6, 0, 0, 0)), // More than 80 60 to 80 More than 80 ((0, 0, 0.05, 0.9, 0.05), // More than 80 More than 80 0 to 20 (0, 0.025, 0.95, 0.025, 0), // More than 80 More than 80 20 to 40 (0.05, 0.35, 0.6, 0, 0), // More than 80 More than 80 40 to 60 (0.275, 0.725, 0, 0, 0), // More than 80 More than 80 60 to 80 (0.95, 0.05, 0, 0, 0)))); // More than 80 More than 80 More than 80 ; numcases = 2; title = "Environmental Outcome"; comment = "Population outcome (across LALs in the Basin) for\n\ alternative X at time X as influenced by land\n\ management activities and other influences as\n\ projected under EIS alternatives.\n\n\ See definitions for population outcomes developed\n\ by terrestrial science team.\n\n\ LAL = \"lowest analysis level\" and refers to the smallest \ land\n\ area that is ecologically meaningful for evaluating each\n\ species. LALs vary in size by species."; whenchanged = 953839957; belief = (0, 0, 0.75, 0.25, 0); visual V2 { center = (276, 210); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 4; link 3 { path = ((171, 125), (206, 153)); }; }; }; node H { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (Absent, Present); parents = (); probs = // Absent Present (0.5, 0.5); title = "Other Organisms"; comment = "This node pertains to the presence and effects of other\n\ organisms in the environment, particularly those that\n\ affect the target species' distribution and abundance.\n\n\ This node can be customized for each species as re-\n\ quired, e.g., names and numbers of states, as well as\n\ organism described."; whenchanged = 952921541; belief = (0.5, 0.5); visual V2 { center = (96, 258); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 5; }; }; node K { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (Absent, Present); parents = (); probs = // Absent Present (0.5, 0.5); title = "Population Size Effect"; comment = "This is a case where population size would be substantially\ \n\ lower than what might appear to be supported by habitat.\n\ For example, if population size is <100, then the popula-\n\ tion may be extremely vulnerable to extirpation based on\n\ random environmental and demographic events, despite\n\ environmental conditions that yield an otherwise high\n\ population outcome.\n\ "; whenchanged = 952921540; belief = (0.5, 0.5); visual V2 { center = (96, 342); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 6; }; }; node J { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (strong, medium, weak); parents = (H, K); probs = // strong medium weak // H K (((0, 0, 1), // Absent Absent (0.5, 0.4, 0.1)), // Absent Present ((0.1, 0.3, 0.6), // Present Absent (0.9, 0.1, 0))); // Present Present ; title = "Non-habitat Influences"; comment = "Placeholder for other influences that are outside of the \n\ geographic or management scope of the EIS. This node,\n\ and its input nodes, can be used to model 2 situations:\n\n\ 1) offsite (outside the CRB) effects on populations of \ migra-\n\ tory species; e.g., mortality of Neotropical migratory birds\ \n\ in Mexico \n\n\ 2) on-site effects on populations of a species, where par-\n\ cular variables have a uniformly pervasive effect across\n\ the whole of the species range within the CRB, e.g., \n\ pesticide effects on mortality rates"; whenchanged = 939228741; belief = (0.375, 0.2, 0.425); visual V2 { center = (276, 336); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 7; link 2 { path = ((176, 339), (195, 338)); }; }; }; node M { kind = NATURE; discrete = TRUE; states = (A, B, C, D, E); levels = (1, 2, 3, 4, 5); parents = (F, J); probs = // A B C D E // F J (((0, 0, 1, 0, 0), // A strong (0, 1, 0, 0, 0), // A medium (1, 0, 0, 0, 0)), // A weak ((0, 0, 0, 1, 0), // B strong (0, 0, 1, 0, 0), // B medium (0, 1, 0, 0, 0)), // B weak ((0, 0, 0, 0, 1), // C strong (0, 0, 0, 1, 0), // C medium (0, 0, 1, 0, 0)), // C weak ((0, 0, 0, 0, 1), // D strong (0, 0, 0, 0, 1), // D medium (0, 0, 0, 1, 0)), // D weak ((0, 0, 0, 0, 1), // E strong (0, 0, 0, 0, 1), // E medium (0, 0, 0, 0, 1))); // E weak ; title = "Population Outcome"; comment = "Population outcome (across LALs in the Basin) for\n\ alternative X at time X as influenced by land\n\ management activities and other influences as\n\ projected under EIS alternatives plus other\n\ influences that are outside the geographic or\n\ management scope of the EIS.\n\n\ LAL = \"lowest analysis level\" and refers to the smallest \ land\n\ area that is ecologically meaningful for evaluating each\n\ species. LALs vary in size by species."; whenchanged = 953839962; belief = (0, 0, 0.31875, 0.25625, 0.425); visual V2 { center = (468, 318); font = font {shape= "Arial"; size= 9;}; height = 8; link 1 { path = ((361, 257), (392, 275)); }; link 2 { path = ((358, 328), (392, 324)); }; }; }; ElimOrder = (H, K, J, M, B, D, E, F); };